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The Dollar hits 2 year high, how does it differ to two years ago?

  • Adam Edwards
  • Jan 2
  • 2 min read

Something I mentioned, in a previous article is that I look at FX rates for work (in a very limited scenario) and through studying I've become more interested in what influences exchange rates. Something I read on Reuters, is that the US dollar has hit a two year high (link to article here). So, what interested me was (1) why? and (2) how does the cause of this high, differ to the high of two years ago?


Part 1 - The Present

The U.S. dollar has recently reached a two-year high against major currencies, influenced by several factors:


Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: The Fed's indication of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period has attracted investors seeking better returns, thereby strengthening the dollar. (source)

Robust U.S. Economic Data: Strong employment figures and economic resilience have bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy, increasing demand for the dollar. (source 1 / source 2)

Global Economic Uncertainty: Concerns about economic slowdowns in other regions, such as Europe and China, have led investors to favor the dollar as a safe-haven asset. (source)


Part 2 - Two years ago...

Two years ago, the dollar also experienced a significant rise, driven by:


Supply Chain Disruptions: The COVID-19 pandemic caused global supply chain issues, leading to product shortages and increased demand for the dollar. (source)

Inflation Concerns: Rising inflation rates prompted expectations of tighter monetary policy, which supported the dollar's value. (source)

Geopolitical Tensions: Events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine increased geopolitical risks, leading investors to seek the safety of the U.S. dollar. (source)


Part 3 - Conclusion

While both periods of dollar strength share common themes of robust U.S. economic performance and global uncertainties, the specific drivers differ. The recent surge is more closely tied to the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance and expectations surrounding President Donald Trump's return to the White House, whereas the earlier rise was influenced by pandemic-related disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

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